Markets & Economy

The jump in rates has continued, and with it deepening confusion

What the payroll report and QE means for the global market

Future-Proof: Navigate Threats, Seize Opportunities at ICNY 2018 | Jan 22-26 at the Marriott Marquis, Times Square, New York

Last week, I thought the rise in long-term rates was overdone and had a chance to reverse. Oops! The jump in rates has continued, and with it deepening confusion. In just six weeks, the 10-year T-note has moved from 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent today, mortgages from 3.75 percent close to 4.25 percent. News media today are desperate to find valid business models to replace newspapers and think-TV. Thus a mass move to competitive nanosecond shouting, trying to match the attention span of the phone-addicted. How to convey emphasis, or events over time, if every headline is hysterical and the copy below Twitter-bitted? Today’s payroll report added little to damage already in place by Wednesday. A nice gain in jobs, heavy with poor ones (57,000 in “leisure and hospitality"), and a minor uptick in wages -- 0.3 percent in May after 0.1 percent in April, year over year 2.6 percent. A couple more reports as adequate as this, and the Fed will lift off. But that’s not the story. Th...