Markets & Economy

Weiss Analytics 2016 forecast: Home appreciation to rise

Throughout the nation fewer homes are expected to depreciate and appreciate in value in 2016

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The national housing market’s recovery is expected to slow in 2016, with fewer homes seeing an increase in value, according to Weiss Analytics forecasts. The company suggests 51.3 percent of homes in the U.S. will see an increase in value over the next 10 months, showing a 12 percent fall in the volume of appreciation.

While the percentage of homes losing value throughout the nation is expected to decrease, roughly 23.2 percent of homes are said to depreciate monthly, Weiss forecasts a 21 percent decline in appreciating values over a 27-month period.

San Francisco home values sing a different tune. October 2015 had a home value appreciation rate of 79.8 percent. The October 2016 forecast is 82.5 percent.

“During the past three years the recovery has generated year over year double digit annual price increases. Our data and analytics show that the pace of change in home values is slowing down—both among homes that are losing value as well as those that have been appreciating,” said Allan Weiss, CEO and founder of Weiss Analytics and former CEO and co-founder of Case Shiller Weiss.

“This retrenchment may delay the return to price parity in some markets but it in others it will help to prevent the formation of bubbles of overvalued properties that could result in defaults.”

Those markets that are expected to have the largest gains are the same ones that suffered the most in the housing market bubble burst in 2007, clustering in the South and Midwest.

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Nationally, the October 2016 appreciation forecast is reported at 51.3 percent, compared with the 58.4 percent in October 2015. It is a 20.8 percent decrease from 2014 to 2016.