• Home and condo price appreciation in San Francisco County will slow in 2018.
  • District 9 is by far the strongest San Francisco County submarket for condo resales.
  • The county will see several waves of condo unit deliveries in the coming years.

One large Bay Area real estate firm expects San Francisco home and condo price appreciation to slow in the coming years, particularly in 2018.

Pacific Union forecasts annual existing home sales growth of 1 or 2 percent during both 2016 and 2017, with some supply relief upcoming for the condo market.

A slowing in price appreciation would suggest that double-digit, year-over-year gains would be a thing of the past. According to a fourth quarter report from the firm, home values for the entire San Francisco County real estate market were recently up by 6.9 percent on a year-over-year basis. The median prices of a single-family home and condo are relatively comparable at $1.2 million and $1.1 million, respectively.

If a 1 percent to 2 percent rise in San Francisco real estate activity occurs during 2016 that will mean that roughly 5,600 to 5,700 properties sell. Expect a larger percentage of single-family and condo sales to be prices in the $1 million to $3 million range.

Last year, nearly 64 percent of all single family homes sold during the fourth quarter were valued between this range. Of all condo resales, nearly 54 percent were priced between $1 million and $2 million.

Another prediction from Pacific Union, foreign investors will still represent a healthy part of the market, most notably Chinese buyers.

The County’s inventory of resales was noticeably low entering this year, with 0.7 months of single-family supply and 0.8 months of condo inventory. However, some supply relief is on the way for the condo sector, as more than 1,300 units are under construction in San Francisco.

Additionally, another 6,750 condos are either approved, under review or in the conceptual stage.

Most active San Francisco districts

Part of Pacific Union’s report focused on activity within the 10 districts that comprise SF County.

During the fourth quarter, district 10 accounted for the most single-family sales, with 116. This district, which had a median sales price of $844,000, includes the neighborhoods of Bayview, Candlestick Point, Hunters Point and Mission Terrace.

Districts 2 and 4 contributed 108 and 104 single-family sales, respectively. Including the neighborhoods of Sunset, Parkside and Golden Gate Heights, district 2 had a median price of $1.16 million. District 4’s median price is at more than $1.4 million. Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights and Fort Hill comprise some of its submarkets.

District 9 contributed the most condo sales of the 10 districts, with 192. The area includes the Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, South of Market and Potrero Hill neighborhoods and had a median price sales of $1.14 million during the fourth quarter.

Email Erik Pisor

Show Comments Hide Comments


Sign up for Inman’s Morning Headlines
What you need to know to start your day with all the latest industry developments
By submitting your email address, you agree to receive marketing emails from Inman.
Thank you for subscribing to Morning Headlines.
Back to top
She almost quit but sold 259 so far this year!Watch Now×
Log in
If you created your account with Google or Facebook
Don't have an account?
Forgot your password?
No Problem

Simply enter the email address you used to create your account and click "Reset Password". You will receive additional instructions via email.

Forgot your username? If so please contact customer support at (510) 658-9252

Password Reset Confirmation

Password Reset Instructions have been sent to

Subscribe to The Weekender
Get the week's leading headlines delivered straight to your inbox.
Top headlines from around the real estate industry. Breaking news as it happens.
15 stories covering tech, special reports, video and opinion.
Unique features from hacker profiles to portal watch and video interviews.
Unique features from hacker profiles to portal watch and video interviews.
It looks like you’re already a Select Member!
To subscribe to exclusive newsletters, visit your email preferences in the account settings.
Up-to-the-minute news and interviews in your inbox, ticket discounts for Inman events and more
1-Step CheckoutPay with a credit card
By continuing, you agree to Inman’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

You will be charged . Your subscription will automatically renew for on . For more details on our payment terms and how to cancel, click here.

Interested in a group subscription?
Finish setting up your subscription