Markets & Economy

Urban Land Institute forecast: Housing starts expected to jump while prices moderate

53 real estate economists and analysts gave their thoughts; here's the consensus
  • Rental vacancy rates are expected to grow while home price growth moderates and single-family housing starts get a boost.

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If you asked 53 real estate economists and analysts what they see in the future of the housing economy, what do you think they'd say? Thankfully, you don't have to guess; Urban Land Institute released its semi-annual Real Estate Consensus Forecast today. Rental rates, home starts and prices "The apartment sector has performed very well the past several years," stated the report. Vacancy rates were 7.1 percent in 2009; then they hit 4.6 percent in 2015 before bumping up to 4.9 percent last year. They're expected to grow in the next few years, hitting 5.2 percent this year, 5.3 percent in 2018 and 5.4 percent in 2019. Forecasted rental rates have also been adjusted to lower than previously forecasted. Rental rate growth slowed in 2016; it grew 0.2 percent "after six straight years of growth over 3 percent," according to the report. In 2017, rental rate growth is expected to hit 2.0 percent and stay there in both 2018 and 2019. What about that pesky problem everyone is...