A typical income can’t buy a typical home in most U.S. markets, according to two reports released Wednesday. Each ran the numbers its own way and reached the same conclusion.
Real estate brokerage Zoocasa compared median household incomes with median home prices in 225 metros and found that the mortgage payment stayed under 28 percent of income in only 18, or 8 percent, of them. Financial advisors recommend that ceiling for housing costs, according to Bankrate guidance cited in the analysis.
The National Housing Conference, a Washington-based nonprofit, measured affordability by occupation. Its “Priced Out: When a Good Job Isn’t Enough ” report, released Wednesday, found that one earner could afford a typical home with a 10 percent down payment in 14 percent of the occupation and metro pairings it tracked in 2025.
By the numbers
Zoocasa
- 103.5 percent: Share of median household income the mortgage takes in San Jose, California, the highest of the 225 metros.
- 9: Metros where the mortgage takes 70 percent or more of median household income. Six are in California.
- 130: Metros where the mortgage takes between 28 percent and 43 percent.
NHC
- 193: Metros where buying a typical home required an income of $100,000 or more in 2025, up from 30 in 2019.
- 188 of 372: Metros where the income needed to buy at least doubled from 2020 to 2025.
- $70,283: Average 2025 salary among occupations that lost the ability to buy since 2020.
How each study measured affordability
Both studies set the affordability line at 28 percent of gross income. Zoocasa paired Census Bureau household income data with National Association of Realtors second-quarter median prices for existing single-family homes, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 7 percent mortgage rate.
NHC paired Bureau of Labor Statistics wages for a single worker with Zillow’s typical home values from June 2025 at a 6.77 percent rate, with taxes and insurance included. JPMorganChase and Rocket supported the NHC report.
Illinois ranks most affordable as its region loses ground
Zoocasa said Illinois claims four of its five most affordable metros, including Decatur, where the mortgage takes 19.3 percent of median household income, and Peoria at 21.6 percent.
NHC’s five-year data show the surrounding region losing ground. The share of occupations able to buy fell 36.81 percentage points from 2020 to 2025 in the East North Central region, which covers Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. That was the steepest regional drop; Ohio recorded the largest state decline at 40.97 points.
Pressure reaches high earners and mid-size metros
NHC found high earners priced out of high-cost markets. Computer and information systems managers in the Seattle metro and chief executives in Boulder, Colorado, could afford a typical home in 2020 and could not in 2025. Median pay for both topped $200,000 in 2025.
Large and mid-size metros appear in both data sets. The mortgage takes 34.48 percent of median household income in Cincinnati and 35.32 percent in Atlanta, above the 28 percent line. Cincinnati crossed NHC’s six-figure threshold in 2025 with a qualifying income of $100,398, and Atlanta’s reached $129,005.
“When people with good jobs can no longer afford to live in the communities where they work, we do not just have a housing problem — we have a much broader economic problem,” NHC President and CEO David M. Dworkin said in a statement.
What it means for agents and clients
Each study’s assumptions define which buyers its headline number describes.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.28 percent as of Oct. 1, the highest since November 2023. Zoocasa assumed 7 percent, and NHC used 6.77 percent from June 2025.
NHC’s headline figure assumes one income per household. With two earners in the same occupation, the group found 54 percent of pairings could afford a typical home in 2025, down from 81 percent in 2020.
Zoocasa noted that some lenders accept a debt-to-income ratio, the share of income going to all monthly debt payments, of up to 43 percent. That widens the options for buyers with no car or student loans. The brokerage cautioned that the 28 percent guideline leaves room for emergency savings.
Both studies test affordability at the middle of a market’s price range, and Zoocasa’s price data leaves out condos and new construction.
The 14 percent share was consistent with NHC’s prior report, and the group said many communities appear to have reached a plateau in rising housing costs.
