It’s just a matter of time…

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Great post over at Realblogging today by Richard Nacht where he asks the right question in response to a new report from NAR on Realtors and their use of the Internet. Richard asks, "Where are da blogs?"

My response would be, just wait. Give it another year, or two at the latest.

For those of us on board the Cluetrain, it may seem obvious that blogs make a complementary tool for real estate professionals. But the reality is that most people haven't figured out Web 2.0 yet.

Everett Rogers' 1962 diffusion of innovations theory brilliantly states that the adoption of any new idea can be characterized by a bell curve of innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards.

picture_rogers_adoption_inn.gif

This theory was further expanded by Geoffrey A. Moore in his 1991 classic high tech marketing book, Crossing the Chasm – where he argues that there exists a "chasm" between the "visionaries" (innovators and early adopters) and "pragmatists" (the rest). Every new technology struggles with how to bridge this chasm. Many don't make it.

I would argue that Web 2.0 (blogs, podcasts, wikis etc.) is teetering on the edge of this chasm right now.

But we'll find the bridge soon.

Microsoft's next operating system Vista is slated to come out in Q1 2007. The next version of Internet Explorer, which is included, has RSS feed handling built right in. I believe this, along with other factors, is going to throw open the door to the masses and help propel across the chasm. This shake up going to have a huge impact on any professional who is not looking to Web 2.0 to help their business.

Those of us who "get it" will have a huge headstart when this all plays out. Those who don't are going to be running to catch up. Mark my words.

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