U.S. markets have begun to fibrillate, pumping wildly and pointlessly, unable to measure prospects for slow-slide recession here, and Europe confounding everyone. In the last five weeks, the S&P 500 has traded from 1,097 to 1,292, caving to 1,244 now; the 10-year T-note in that time 1.75 percent to 2.37 percent, today back to 2.04 percent. The mortgage centerline is 4.25 percent, a huge spread to 10-year T-notes, which may soon draw the Fed's attention.
The ISM surveys (old "purchasing managers") arrived at 50.8 for manufacturing in October, teetering at break-even and down from 52.1; the service sector 52.9 unchanged. Rather more ominous, the European equivalent dumped to 43, clear recession, and China is no