NAR lowers 2008 price forecast
Real estate roundup
By Inman News, Monday, June 9, 2008.
The following is a real estate news roundup:
NAR: Resale home price may fall 6.4% this year
The median resale home price is expected to fall 6.4 percent this year, the National Association of Realtors reported today -- that drop is 4 percent larger than the group's previous forecast for a 2.4 percent decline, released in May.
The Realtor trade group's latest forecast also anticipates a 4.5 percent annual drop in existing-home sales this year, followed by a 6.3 percent rise in sales in 2009.
Single-family housing starts are expected to plunge 36.3 percent this year and another 1.8 percent in 2009, NAR reports, with the median new-home price dropping 3.1 percent this year.
Pending sales index rises in West
An index that gauges pending sales of resale homes fell 13.1 percent compared to last year, the National Association of Realtors reported today, but was up 6.3 percent from a record low set last month.
NAR's Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on home-purchase contracts signed in April, rose 4 percent year-over-year in the West while dropping 22.5 percent in the South, 13.1 percent in the Midwest and 12.2 percent in the Northeast. The index data dates back to 2001.
For-sale price increases in 15 of 26 markets
The monthly asking price of homes in 10 major U.S. cities dropped 0.3 percent in May, according to a report by Altos Research, but has risen 0.3 percent in the past three months.
For-sale listing prices rose in 15 of 26 market areas tracked by Altos Research in May compared to the previous month, and the largest monthly listing-price rise was in Denver, up 3.7 percent. The largest decline in asking price was in Las Vegas, down 3.7 percent. In the past three months, the asking price dropped 6.3 percent in the Las Vegas market and rose 6.5 percent in the Denver market.
For-sale inventory rose in 25 of 26 markets in May -- inventory declined 1.3 percent in Miami during May and has declined 2.4 percent in the past three months, Altos Research reported.
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Submitted by Jack McCabe on June 10, 2008 - 5:07am.
Isn't it amazing how the NAR continues to spread crapola numbers every month hoping the public will gobble them up and perceive a more positive market than is actual reality? Every month, every time, they must LOWER and reduce their forecasts to more closely resemble reality. What a joke!
The pending home sales numbers the NAR offer are able to be successfully "massaged" by their "economists" (ha). Pending sales are based on a sampling of 20% (1 in 5)of the previous months sales. What the NAR reports as actual closings for the previous month are based on a sampling of 50% of actual closings. Anybody with an inkling of know how can massage a small select sampling of data to portray the most positive results. The spinmeisters at the NAR rival Tokyo Rose and Karl Rove when it comes to propagandizing data and facts. I call it "Realtor Rumpelstilksen Economics".
What's amazing is things have gotten SO bad that even the NAR's hype, fluff and puff cannot disguise the severity of this real estate downturn and recession.
Realtor members should begin to analyze the role this Association played in creating the national artificial real estate market; their leading role in disseminating "data and analysis" to continue the inflated, artificial activity; and "milk the golden cow" long past its time. I think that this association's "leadership" should be investigated for unethical, immoral, and potentially illegal practices. In my opinion, the shennanigans and alleged illegal activities performed by real estate brokers and salepersons since 2002 rivals and overshadows the lenders granting of mortgages to unqualified buyers. In many cases, the real estate broker or salesperson "steered" clients to these mortgage brokers for hidden referral fees, and knew buyers would wind up in foreclosure if prices dropped. These are two of the main factors that created the sur-real estate boom and bust now throttling our economy, and for that matter, the global economics.
Now would be a good time for some enterprising entrepreneurs to start up a competitive real estate broker and salesperson association where ethics, morality, experience, and professionalism are mandatory requirements verified prior to inclusion.
The NAR is a dinosaur, has become a dis-service to members and the public, and should become extinct.
Jack McCabe
CEO
McCabe Research & Consulting
2422 Lob Lolly Lane
Deerfield Beach, Florida 33442
Submitted by Wenceslao Fernandez Jr, BS, Realtor, CDPE on June 10, 2008 - 6:27am.
Mr. McCabe, I'm not sure what your beef is with NAR but I have not seen many posts...come to think of it...not one post from you that offers any kind of solution or properly countering your alledgedly incorrect NAR figures with proper and unbiased McCabe Research & Consulting numbers.
As a Realtor in Miami, I look for positive outlooks to help my customers, clients and even myself. All doom and gloom is as unrealistic as all rosy posy.
However, I prefer to find silver linings than chase thunderclouds or to think that the light at the end of the tunnel is NOT a train comming.
The report mentioned above reitarates my suspissions that in the Miami-Dade County area, as bad as things are, seem to be improving just as I suspect.
The report mentions "...inventory declined 1.3 percent in Miami during May and has declined 2.4 percent in the past three months". After looking at data from our board May numbers are not yet reported but the Altos figures seem encouraging considering what we've been experiencing.
Actually, based on the numbers we have available, inventories have risen every month this year for January through April as follows: 41398, 41894, 42402, 42620. Sold homes on the other hand, have fluctuated some between January and April as follows: 716, 748, 908, 829.
Obviously, if May numbers seem to improve in any way, this is the kind of news I want in order to remain motivated and confident and to encourage buyers and sellers to continue moving forward and negotiating rather then entrenching themselves in a dark cave, while missing out on any opportunity that may be presenting itself.
Of course, the Miami numbers they used to claim a 2.4% decline are not indicative of the numbers available to me, and perhpas they should justify or qualify where the information comes from (just the same, where do YOUR numbers come from?).
Our board uses numbers from the Southeast Regional MLS, while perhaps Altos Research (which I'll admit, I do no know if they're owned by NAR), numbers come from a different source.
Besides, Warren Buffet believes that (to paraphrase), it is better to invest when there is blood on the streets, so-to-speak.
This is what smart stock (equity, bond, commodity and currency) market investors pursue to improve their gains and increase wealth, and this is the approach buyers and sellers should review when considering buying and selling real estate.
Perhaps you could offer quantifiable, unbiased data that would refute the report and back up your complaint while helping consumers make smart decisions rather than lash out and simply blanket critizise.
Even better, perhaps you could create a new NAR-like institution that could serve consumers across the board well, while you reap the benefits of making millions while helping millions.
Watch CNBC any day and you will see throughout the day, positive and negative, pro and con reports on pretty much, every topic they cover. Experts come on both sides of the fence claiming and showing why they think they're right, leaving it to the consumer to make a decision, all while the markets (comprised of millions of individual and hundreds of institutional investors) play out.
Perhaps you can be the voice of reason if you only focused on providing your point of view, backed by unbiased, quantifiable figures without resorting to insults that benefit noone except your ego and perhaps even your id.
www.MiamiRealEstateKing.com
Certified Distressed Property Expert
Miami-Dade County, Florida.
Submitted by Michael Espiritu on June 10, 2008 - 10:09am.
NAR's economic forecast and their numbers have been a constant source of laughter since the market slide in the last year. The leading economist for CAR (California Association of Realtors) stated in October of 2007 that oil would not exced $100/barrel. The numbers aren't accurate, haven't been accurate and has a direct hand in the public's perception of our industry.
John Q. Public is not stupid and the real picture I see is this- More homes will be sold this year than last year in my region because the foreclosure market has forced the prices down to an affordable price. Prices will continue to fall because in order to sell in this area you need to be the lowest price i.e. lowest $/SF. Prices will fall until inventory levels stabliize. We are not at the bottom and many unbiased, very knowledgeable economists state that we are looking at 10-25% declines in prices through 2009.That tells me that more people will be able to purchase a home because of falling prices(That is an opportunity to get more sales).
This is not just a housing issue. The economy sucks and the lending mess is starting to have effects in other areas like car sales, clothing, vacations, RV sales,boat, PWC, and motorcycle sales. More plants are closing, more people are losing their jobs that are not directly tied to housing which will add more foreclosed homes to already high inventory levels.
Tell it like is, no sugarcoating! I tell my clients the true state of the market and I will never compromise the truth. My clients know they can trust what I tell them and the advice on how to proceed or get this...not proceed.
Get real or get out of the business. I see opportunity because I adapt to changes in the marketplace. Evolve with the changes, find a niche, expand your business.
Mr. McCabe is absolutely right in his post!
Submitted by Sam Chapman on June 10, 2008 - 10:56am.
I thought they were overly optimistic with their initial forecase. Even markets with strong economies like Austin are feeling it. Home prices here are the same as last year at best.