Nearly impossible for mortgage rates to dip below record

Commentary: Market drivers affecting interest rates

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Long-term Treasury rates broke 4 percent this week (barely, at 3.98-.99), which dragged 30-year mortgages to a six-month low of 5.69 percent with a modest “origination” fee, as reported by Freddie Mac, its time-lagged survey correct for once.

The market drivers, in order of forcefulness: a fading stock market, $55/bbl oil, an economy losing forward momentum, and a growing belief that the Fed’s next expected 0.25 percent hike (taking Fed funds to 2 percent on November 10) will be its last for quite some time.