The U.S. leading index, a key barometer of economic conditions, gained 0.9 percent in June, the Conference Board reported.

The leading index now stands at 137.7. Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in May and increased 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 0.6 percent, with five out of 10 components advancing.

The sharp pick up in June keeps the leading index on a slightly rising trend, and this behavior is consistent with the economy continuing to expand moderately in the near term, but at a slower pace than in recent quarters.

The revised leading index has increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate over the last six months, but this is down from a peak of about 10 percent at the end of 2003. The strengths and weaknesses among the components of the leading index have been roughly balanced in recent months.

Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were index of consumer expectations, vendor performance, real money supply, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), interest-rate spread, stock prices, and building permits. The negative contributor was manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods. The average weekly manufacturing hours and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials held steady in June.

The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased again in June. The coincident index has been increasing at a relatively steady 2.5 percent annual rate since April 2003, and the strength continues to be widespread. At the same time, the growth rate of real GDP has been fluctuating around a 4 percent annual rate over the last two years.

The Conference Board is as nonprofit research and business group.


What’s your opinion? Send your Letter to the Editor to

Show Comments Hide Comments


Sign up for Inman’s Morning Headlines
What you need to know to start your day with all the latest industry developments
By submitting your email address, you agree to receive marketing emails from Inman.
Thank you for subscribing to Morning Headlines.
Back to top
Only 3 days left to register for Inman Connect Las Vegas before prices go up! Don't miss the premier event for real estate pros.Register Now ×
Limited Time Offer: Get 1 year of Inman Select for $199SUBSCRIBE×
Log in
If you created your account with Google or Facebook
Don't have an account?
Forgot your password?
No Problem

Simply enter the email address you used to create your account and click "Reset Password". You will receive additional instructions via email.

Forgot your username? If so please contact customer support at (510) 658-9252

Password Reset Confirmation

Password Reset Instructions have been sent to

Subscribe to The Weekender
Get the week's leading headlines delivered straight to your inbox.
Top headlines from around the real estate industry. Breaking news as it happens.
15 stories covering tech, special reports, video and opinion.
Unique features from hacker profiles to portal watch and video interviews.
Unique features from hacker profiles to portal watch and video interviews.
It looks like you’re already a Select Member!
To subscribe to exclusive newsletters, visit your email preferences in the account settings.
Up-to-the-minute news and interviews in your inbox, ticket discounts for Inman events and more
1-Step CheckoutPay with a credit card
By continuing, you agree to Inman’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

You will be charged . Your subscription will automatically renew for on . For more details on our payment terms and how to cancel, click here.

Interested in a group subscription?
Finish setting up your subscription