All roads lead to real estate cooldown

But Fed forecast at odds with economic data

Mortgage rates have held last week’s improvement near 6.625 percent, taken and held by the 10-year T-note’s retreat from 5.2 percent to 5.05 percent. The bond market is in a standoff, uncertain about everything except inflation at or over a dangerous edge, and waiting for next Friday’s job data.

A long weekend is a good time to sort the things we know from the things we don’t.