All roads lead to real estate cooldown

But Fed forecast at odds with economic data

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Mortgage rates have held last week’s improvement near 6.625 percent, taken and held by the 10-year T-note’s retreat from 5.2 percent to 5.05 percent. The bond market is in a standoff, uncertain about everything except inflation at or over a dangerous edge, and waiting for next Friday’s job data.

A long weekend is a good time to sort the things we know from the things we don’t.