Energy prices fall, mortgage rates follow

Bond market sheds light on Fed's next move

The Treasury-bond market has had its best week in 18 months, the 10-year T-note today 4.61 percent, and that dragged low-fee mortgage rates below 6.5 percent. The improvement in mortgages was not as big as the Treasury move, but catch-up trading should soon take us to 6.25 percent.

The unsettling backdrop to this decline: nobody has a good explanation for why.

A drop in long-term rates at the end of a Fed tightening cycle is always associated with a slowdown in the economy, usually an abrupt one.