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Economy to grow slowly

The Conference Board reports why recession is not in the forecast

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The U.S. economy is expected to grow slowly and not sink into recession, according to an analysis released today by The Conference Board research firm. "The challenge for both the Federal Reserve Board and the U.S. economy is that this period of sub-par growth is likely to have little impact on inflation and short-term interest rates," Gail D. Fosler, executive vice president and chief economist of The Conference Board, said in a statement. "Rather than coming down, they are likely to remain high for an extended period or even go up." Over the past three months, The Conference Board index of leading economic indicators has turned down relative to its level six months ago for the first time in this expansion. "While this signal is not particularly alarming, since the downturn is still rather modest, it does suggest that the economic cycle is more mature than is generally presumed," Fosler stated in her analysis, which appeared in The Conference Board's member newsletter. "Although su...