AgentIndustry News

Housing reality: neither bubble nor bottom

Mortgage market commentary

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Mortgage rates have risen again, sharply, beginning to push 6.5 percent for low-fee, 30-year loans, and big-media "news" won't discover the jump until late next week because of lags in national surveys. It's real, though, right now. The definitive 10-year T-note has blown up to 4.88 percent from 4.45 percent only six weeks ago, the damage caused by a colossal bond-market error in economic forecasting. It was just certain last summer and fall that a slowing housing market would tip over the economy, and the Fed would begin to cut its 5.25 percent overnight rate in 2007. As completely mistaken as mistaken can be. The effects of this error are going to ripple for months, mortgage rates continuously vulnerable unless we are saved by a delayed appearance of general economic slowdown. Here's a great thing for the housing sector: if you want lower mortgage rates, you've got to hope for a deeper housing crater. Fire or ice. The same is true for fans of the stock market, which has had an ugl...