Two weeks ago, the 10-year T-note traded under 4.65 percent; yesterday it touched 4.9 percent. Mortgages — as always, following the 10-year in lockstep — were trying to break 6.25 percent going down; now they are trying to hold 6.5 percent while going up.
The case for holding is poor.
Rates are rising because the global economy is taking off. Forget all the thoughts of drag from concerted tightening by central banks, Europe to top out, America to slide near recession on weak housing and manufacturing, Asian exports to be undercut by American weakness.