Year-over-year declines in national home prices have stabilized in the 10 to 11 percent range, but price declines are accelerating when inflation is taken into account, according to a new analysis by First American CoreLogic.

The First American CoreLogic June 2008 LoanPerformance House Price Index shows home prices down 10.7 percent in June from a year ago. The index concludes that between April and June home-price declines were flat, falling by an average of 10.8 percent. But factor in inflation and real home-price declines accelerated from 15.3 percent in April to 16.8 percent in June.

"Given the surge in inflation, real inflation-adjusted home prices are still declining at a faster rate," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic, in a press release.

Fleming said even without factoring in inflation, 37 states are seeing nominal price declines, with prices down more than 20 percent year-over-year in California and Nevada, and more than 17 percent in Arizona and Florida.

Based on home-price expectations for the remainder of the year, Fleming predicts there will be 2.7 million pre-foreclosure and foreclosure filings in 2008, up nearly 50 percent from a year ago.

The 11 markets with the biggest price drops were located in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.

They were:

  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., -26.55 percent
  • Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario Calif., -26.07 percent
  • Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif., -25.67 percent
  • Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla., -24 percent
  • Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., -23.52 percent
  • Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., -22.17 percent
  • San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif., -22.09 percent
  • Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz., -21.14 percent
  • Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla., -20.06 percent
  • Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla., -19.15 percent
  • Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla., -15.34 percent

Four out of the five top markets that saw prices appreciate were in Texas: Austin-Round Rock (up 4.02 percent), Houston-Sugar Land Baytown (3.55 percent), San Antonio (2.12 percent) and Dallas-Plano-Irving (1.56 percent). Salt Lake City, Utah, also saw 2.27 percent appreciation in June from the year before.


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