The National Association of Realtors is expecting total sales of resale homes this year to drop 11.4 percent compared to 2007 and the median price of resale homes to fall 7 percent — both projections are down from an earlier forecast.

The association is calling for 5.01 million sales of resale homes this year, compared with 5.65 million in 2007 and 6.48 million in 2006.

In a previous forecast released last month, the association anticipated that sales of resale homes would drop 8.9 percent and resale prices would fall 5.6 percent this year compared to last year. And a month earlier, NAR was projecting that sales of resale homes would fall 6 percent this year compared to last year.

The latest NAR economic forecast, released today, anticipates a 6.9 percent rise in sales of resale homes and a 2.4 percent rise in median resale home prices in 2009 compared to 2008.

New single-family home sales are expected to drop 34.4 percent this year compared to 2007, and to fall 8.9 percent next year. That follows an 18.1 percent drop in new-home sales in 2006 and a 26.3 percent drop in 2007.

The median new-home price is expected to drop 4.9 percent this year and rise 3.3 percent next year, according to NAR’s forecast. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is expected to average 6.3 percent this year — level with 2007 — and to rise to 6.7 percent in 2009, with the federal funds rate averaging 2.3 percent this year and rising to 3.1 percent in 2009.


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