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Forecast: Recovery a long, hard slog

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The recession may be over, but consumer and business debt -- coupled with rising foreclosures and unemployment -- will make for a slow recovery, economists with the UCLA Anderson Forecast said in a report released today."Although the worst recession in seven decades likely ended in the current quarter, its negative effects will linger well into the next decade," said David Shulman, senior economist for the forecast, in one of several essays accompanying the report's statistical forecasts. The report includes forecasts for housing prices, housing starts, unemployment, mortgage rates, disposable income and other factors affecting housing markets. Unlike many past recessions, the latest one was spurred by consumers and businesses taking on too much debt rather than imbalances in the "real" economy, Shulman writes in his essay, "The Long Goodbye."Because of that, not only will financial institutions be less willing to lend, but consumers and businesses will be...