Long-term rates are again approaching four-month lows, with 10-year T-notes just above the magic 3.28 percent level; break that and low-fee mortgages will cross just under 5 percent.

If that blessed moment should arrive, do not wait for lower or expect sub-5 percent to last more than a few hours: Surviving mortgage lenders will yell "Now!" to a few million boat-missing refinance candidates, and that renewed demand must be worked off before any deeper drop.

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