Industry NewsMarkets & Economy

Economy draped in TARP failure

Future-Proof: Navigate Threats, Seize Opportunities at ICNY 2018 | Jan 22-26 at the Marriott Marquis, Times Square, New York

Long-term rates are falling, a brief bout of economic optimism now replaced by a renewed "Who knows?" Mortgage rates are 5 percent-ish (you might find a "4" prefix in your stocking) and the 10-year Treasury note is trying to head back under 3.5 percent. The optimism crested with a surge in producer prices (core up 0.5 percent in November), and industrial production better than expected, up 0.8 percent. Some drew confidence from the Fed's post-meeting assertion that "economic activity continued to pick up." Then core Consumer Price Index data came in unchanged for November, a developing crisis in Europe pushed cash to the dollar (weak nations may depart the euro, hurt as they are by its excessive strength, driven by German super-productivity), homebuilding is still going nowhere, and weekly unemployment claims spiked to 480,000. The comic-opera conclusion to one of the great failures in American economic policy played out all week long. We may...