Economic genie is out of wishes

Commentary: Welcome to the political fun house

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Inman Connect New York | January 29 - February 1, 2019

One of these monthly payroll reports will signal a turn in the economy to self-sustaining growth, and splatter the bond and mortgage markets all over the windshield.

Not today. The payroll positive in August: Non-government jobs rose by 67,000 (half of those in unaffordable health care, the only sector to gain jobs every month of the recession).

Details were thin cheer: Overall employment fell 54,000 in August, as cuts in one-time Census workers and other government jobs overwhelmed the private gain; and a June-July revision found that we did not lose 352,000 jobs, only 229,000.

Flat, going nowhere … but not a double-dip. Therefore, sell safety-bonds: 10-year T-notes jumped to 2.75 percent from 2.47 percent on Wednesday, but mortgages have held at 4.5 percent.