Forecast: Real estate recovery won't arrive till 2013 or beyond

'Wost case scenario': 12-year supply of distressed properties

SAN FRANCISCO — The real estate market will see improvement in the remainder of this year and in 2012, but is unlikely to recover until 2013 or beyond, said speakers at this week’s Pacific Coast Builders Conference (PCBC). The conference is sponsored by the California Building Industry Association.

Held yearly at San Francisco’s Moscone Center, PCBC attendees include builders, investors, developers, manufacturers, scientists, architects, environmental engineers and landscapers, among others.

"We’re in a ‘broken W’ economy. A couple of quarters up, then down," said Ken Rosen, chair of UC Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics. He was one of three panelists in a session titled "Translating the Macro Economic Forecast to Real Local Market Knowledge."

"The housing market may have bottomed, but chances of a housing recovery this year are pretty slim," said Elliott Pollack, CEO of Elliott D. Pollack & Co., an economic and real estate consulting firm.