Markets & Economy

Global credit markets begin to price in economic recovery and withdrawal probability

Be very careful floating a mortgage rate

Interpretations of this week’s events are all over the lot, so before adding to the confusion, here are a few bare facts with opinion sandwiched between. The U.S. 10-year T-note began 2015 at 2.23 percent and promptly dropped to 1.65 percent in February; by mid-March, it was back to 2.23 percent, then stable near 1.9 percent for six weeks -- and in the last 10 days blew back to 2.23 percent. Mortgages are less volatile than 10s, but tracked in a range 3.75 percent to 4 percent. That trading is a bottoming pattern. The end to a 15-month straight-line downtrend. And anticipatory to Fed liftoff, whether summer or fall or whenever. Today the all-important monthly payroll report brought an April gain of 223,000 jobs. The consensus seems reassured, seeing a rebound after a lousy winter. But, in the rest of the report: March was revised from a poor 126,000 gain to only 85,000. April unemployment stayed the same 5.4 percent, as did the 6.6 million “involuntary part-time.” The ...