Markets & Economy

Global credit markets begin to price in economic recovery and withdrawal probability

Be very careful floating a mortgage rate

Don't miss the real estate event of the summer
Join 4,000 real estate pros at Connect SF, Aug 7‑11, 2017

Interpretations of this week’s events are all over the lot, so before adding to the confusion, here are a few bare facts with opinion sandwiched between. The U.S. 10-year T-note began 2015 at 2.23 percent and promptly dropped to 1.65 percent in February; by mid-March, it was back to 2.23 percent, then stable near 1.9 percent for six weeks -- and in the last 10 days blew back to 2.23 percent. Mortgages are less volatile than 10s, but tracked in a range 3.75 percent to 4 percent. That trading is a bottoming pattern. The end to a 15-month straight-line downtrend. And anticipatory to Fed liftoff, whether summer or fall or whenever. Today the all-important monthly payroll report brought an April gain of 223,000 jobs. The consensus seems reassured, seeing a rebound after a lousy winter. But, in the rest of the report: March was revised from a poor 126,000 gain to only 85,000. April unemployment stayed the same 5.4 percent, as did the 6.6 million “involuntary part-time.” The ...