InternationalMarkets & Economy

Expectations are so high, it would be odd if Fed didn’t lift off in September

Another reasonable payroll report today gives Fed all the cover (if not justification) necessary

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Takeaways: Long-term rates fell again today in response to heightened Fed probability. Average hourly earnings gained 5 cents in July, one measly nickel to $24.99. Not supporting the Fed: Core personal consumption expenditure inflation in June was the third straight 0.1 percent creeper, just 1.3 percent year over year. The Fed is coming. Another reasonable payroll report today gives the Fed all the cover (if not justification) necessary. Expectations are so high that it would be odd if the Fed did not lift from zero next month. Even odder, in response to heightened Fed probability, long-term rates fell today. Again. Not a lot -- the 10-year T-note from 2.25 percent Thursday to 2.17 percent, but down from the 2.45 percent prevailing all through June and early July. First, the data: Another 215,000 jobs in July, but just keeping up with population in a growing nation of 321 million, unemployment unchanged at 5.3 percent. Most importantly, average hourly earnings gai...