• Houston home prices are 20 percent above their long-term fundamental value
  • Home prices are rising at a slower rate than during the previous two years.
  • Have home prices peaked in some Houston markets?

The Houston housing market is starting to show its first signs of weakness, according to one source.

These first signs: falling sales activity and slower home price appreciation.

CoreLogic points to stats from the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) that show home sales volume dropped by 10.2 percent year-over-year in October. According to HAR, this represents the fifth time this year where monthly sales have fallen on a year-over-year basis.

“Slower home sales likely stem from declining employment,” CoreLogic stated, adding Houston has the nation’s 10th-highest concentration of oil and mining employment.

While home prices are up year-over-year, they’re rising at a slower pace than during the last two years, when prices increased by 9.7 percent (2014) and 11.1 percent (2013).

According to a CoreLogic index, home prices in Houston rose 7 percent year-over-year during September.

Two months ago, HAR stats showed Houston’s median home price climbed to a record level for an October, reaching $205,000. Moving forward, gain in home values are expected to further slow.

“Houston home prices are about 20 percent above their long-term fundamental value, and are projected to be largely flat through September 2016,” CoreLogic said.

The firm notes that smaller metros in west Texas, Midland and Odessa, have the highest concentration of oil-related employment in the nation and should see similar oil-related housing slowdowns.

Email Erik Pisor

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