Here's some evidence that the U.S. economy is doing OK

  • On the first business day each month, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports its manufacturing-sector survey, and then a few days later the service-sector one.
  • The ISMs have caught the beginnings and turns and ends of every interest rate and Fed cycle.
  • A reading of 50.0 is a break-even economy, 44.0 marks a real recession and over 60.0 shows overheating.
  • Last Friday, July 1, the manufacturing survey taken at the end of June rose nicely to 53.2 from May’s 51.3.
  • On July 6 came services -- at least 70 percent of the economy; May had been a thin 52.9, forecast to rise to 53.4 -- and instead June blew out to 56.5.

On the first business day each month, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports its manufacturing-sector survey, and then a few days later the service-sector one. The surveys are crucial for several reasons.