As tax day came and went, agents and buyers alike await the influx of new listings that spring has historically brought. But where are they?
New York City, which has now been suffering from an inventory crunch for over a year, doesn’t look to be offering buyers too many more new alternatives in the coming months. Although listing activity has picked up a bit in the past week or two, total listings are still 10 percent below where they were at this time last year. And inventory was not so great then, either.
Agents, eternal optimists that we are, insist that the deficit is the result of spring break. But now that the month of April is half over, that explanation seems a bit hollow. Many consumers, so sure back in November that the election of Mamdani would cause a blind rush out of the city, continue to wait for that flight to take place.
These days, Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott do not seem to have the same luck luring our citizens to their states as they appeared to have in the past.
Tax the rich?
While it’s too soon to tell whether NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani will succeed in upping taxes in New York City, those taxes will mostly have to be approved by the governor, and it’s an election year for Kathy Hochul.
So we probably shouldn’t hold our breath for her to be taxing the rich any time soon, even though we all know that people earning over $1 million per year probably can afford to pay a little more. Especially since most of them travel by Uber or Lyft, which so far have not reflected the increase in gas prices coming our way from the Strait of Hormuz.
However, I do think the disruptions caused by the war in Iran impact sales inventory in another way. In spite of the changes that have accompanied this second Trump administration, New Yorkers actively traded real estate during the first quarter.
Many properties that had been on the market for months, even years, changed hands during the winter. But I think the war in Iran has generated a sense of apprehension in many New Yorkers, and anxious people tend to shy away from change.
Adding this new conflict to those already ongoing in Gaza and Ukraine creates a different, more insecure world order than we enjoyed during much of the post-recessionary period. That sort of insecurity isn’t conducive to big changes. Many sellers just decide to stay put (or list for unrealistically high prices).
And many buyers, frustrated by the lack of inventory at the same time they are astonished by paying $4+ per gallon on their way to the Hamptons, simply decide to take a breather.
NYC’s market resilience
All this being said, neither the New York real estate market nor New York itself are going anywhere. During my 45 years in the brokerage business, countless “influencers” have predicted our demise countless times.
The tech bubble, 9/11, the recession, COVID — all were trumpeted in some quarters as death knells of New York City. But we are too resilient to be defeated.
Too much Broadway, too much music, too many fabulous restaurants, too many wonderful immigrants bringing their native habits and art forms and cuisines and adding them to the mosaic: Inventory will rise and fall, billionaires will come and go, as will socialists, populists and everyone in between.
Regardless, New Yorkers have a limited tolerance for delayed gratification. Once they have taken a breather, they act. And the experienced agents have patience; we will be there when they do.
Frederick Warburg Peters is a licensed associate real estate broker with Brown Harris Stevens and the former CEO and founder of Warburg Realty.
