With a soft landing seen as more likely, analysts say Fed can be more cautious about the pace of future rate cuts and mortgage rates aren't likely to fall below 6% anytime soon
Investors who fund most mortgages have already priced in several rate cuts, so further declines could depend on what next week's 'dot plot' says about expectations for the pace of future cuts
A surprisingly large increase in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, means Fed policymakers are likely to start out with a modest 25 basis-point rate cut next week
Bond market investors who fund most mortgages are already certain the Fed will slash rates this month. The question has become how much will policymakers cut on Sept. 18, Nov. 7 and Dec. 18?
PCE price index shows inflation continued to cool in July, but at a gentle enough pace that Fed policymakers are now seen as likely to only bring rates down by a hair in September
The Fed doesn't have direct control over mortgage rates, but they've come down dramatically as investors are convinced policymakers will cut rates at their 3 remaining 2024 meetings
As inflation gets closer to Fed's 2% target, economists at Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association predict mortgage rates will continue to drop into the low 6s by the end of next year
Mortgage rates are on the rebound despite encouraging inflation data, as Fed policymakers stick to 'higher for longer' strategy until they see more conclusive evidence economy has cooled
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge fell to 2.56% in May, getting closer to the Fed's 2% target for the 2nd month in a row. Core inflation reading is lowest since March 2021
Employers added 272,000 jobs in May, far exceeding the consensus view among economists that payrolls would rise by 180,000 and the average of 232,000 over the past year
Mortgage rates have some room to come back down in June after PCE price index shows annual inflation easing to 2.65% in April, and Q1 2024 GDP growth revised downward to 1.3%
Bond market investors shrug off Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's warning that he wants to see 'several more months of good inflation data' before cutting rates
Rates have been in retreat as bond market investors who fund most mortgage loans react to the latest economic news and scaleback in 'quantitative tightening' by Fed policymakers
Rates for conforming loans pushed through 7% last week and continue to rise, as latest inflation data and remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell dim prospects that Fed will ease in June
Bond market investors who fund most mortgage loans are increasingly convinced the latest inflation numbers mean the Federal Reserve won't cut rates in June