Tariff fears sour consumer sentiment, push mortgage rates up
The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 11% from March to April to 50.8 and is now lower than it was at any point during the 2007-2009 Great Recession
by Matt Carter Apr 11
Inflation eased in March, but tariff impacts remain to be seen
Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index dropped to an annual rate of 2.4% last month, but the impact of tariffs probably won't start showing up in the data until May
by Matt Carter Apr 10
Mortgage rates down sharply as tariff worries spark flight to safety
Heightened fears of a trade war and recession have investors convinced the Fed will start cutting rates again in June, a sentiment that gives mortgage rates more room to come down
by Matt Carter Apr 4
Trump announces universal tariffs of at least 10% on most nations
Sweeping plan imposes higher duties on 'worst offenders' and is in addition to 25% tariff on foreign automobiles slated to take effect April 3, president says at White House press conference
by Matt Carter Apr 2
Surprise Fed move takes some pressure off of mortgage rates
Central bank dials back Treasury rolloffs but is not ready to cut short-term interest rates, as Fed policymakers indicate they're more worried about inflation than they were in December
by Matt Carter Mar 19
Inflation, job worries drive 'horrific' consumer confidence report
Republicans are less worried about the future than Democrats and Independents, but 'consumers from all 3 political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February'
by Matt Carter Mar 14
Encouraging CPI inflation report does little for mortgage rates
Homebuyers have responded to a pullback in mortgage rates from January highs, but tariffs on imported goods could keep inflation elevated and halt the downward trend in rates
by Matt Carter Mar 12
Weak February jobs report moves the needle on mortgage rates
Mortgage rates eased Friday as investors took stock of new data showing employers added 151,000 workers to their payrolls in February and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%
by Matt Carter Mar 7
Inflation is cooling. But is the economy about to crash?
After moving in the wrong direction for 3 months, annual inflation cooled to 2.5% in January. But the biggest drop in consumer spending since 2021 has 1 model predicting a shrinking economy
by Matt Carter Feb 28
Trump signals tariffs on Canada, Mexico will take effect March 4
There's rising anxiety among investors and consumers about the potential impacts of a trade war, surveys show, with stock prices and bond yields retreating as March 4 deadline looms
by Matt Carter Feb 25
Mortgage rates climbing again on hot CPI report, Powell testimony
Trump calls for lower interest rates after release of January CPI report. Powell says Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and bond market investors who fund mortgages are taking him at his word
by Matt Carter Feb 12
Fed pauses rate cuts, continues mortgage 'quantitative tightening'
Trump wants the central bank to lower rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he's not spoken to the President, and that 'we don't need to be in a hurry to adjust the policy stance'
by Matt Carter Jan 29
Mortgage rates ease on benign December inflation report
Investors bid up shares of mortgage lenders and real estate companies after 'relatively benign' CPI report ends speculation that inflation worries might force the Fed to raise rates this year
by Matt Carter Jan 15
Strong December jobs report pushes mortgage rates higher
Investors who fund most home loans are now convinced that the Federal Reserve won't cut rates again until June after employers add 256K jobs and unemployment falls to 4.1%
by Matt Carter Jan 10
Mortgage demand crumbles as rates are on the rise again
With mortgage rates back to where they were last summer, purchase applications are coming in at the slowest pace since February 2024, Mortgage Bankers Association lender survey finds
by Matt Carter Jan 8