NAR drops expectations for home sales, prices
Forecast sees sales falling 11.4% in 2008
By Inman News, Tuesday, September 9, 2008.The National Association of Realtors is expecting total sales of resale homes this year to drop 11.4 percent compared to 2007 and the median price of resale homes to fall 7 percent -- both projections are down from an earlier forecast.
The association is calling for 5.01 million sales of resale homes this year, compared with 5.65 million in 2007 and 6.48 million in 2006.
In a previous forecast released last month, the association anticipated that sales of resale homes would drop 8.9 percent and resale prices would fall 5.6 percent this year compared to last year. And a month earlier, NAR was projecting that sales of resale homes would fall 6 percent this year compared to last year.
The latest NAR economic forecast, released today, anticipates a 6.9 percent rise in sales of resale homes and a 2.4 percent rise in median resale home prices in 2009 compared to 2008.
New single-family home sales are expected to drop 34.4 percent this year compared to 2007, and to fall 8.9 percent next year. That follows an 18.1 percent drop in new-home sales in 2006 and a 26.3 percent drop in 2007.
The median new-home price is expected to drop 4.9 percent this year and rise 3.3 percent next year, according to NAR's forecast. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is expected to average 6.3 percent this year -- level with 2007 -- and to rise to 6.7 percent in 2009, with the federal funds rate averaging 2.3 percent this year and rising to 3.1 percent in 2009.
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Submitted by Steve Simon on September 9, 2008 - 12:22pm.
Bleak!
But not fatal.
In the short runthere will be many more foreclosures, many more short sales and a lot of unhappy folks on the selling side. Long term however is a different picture. The census and predicting data show that our population increases will be the trigger for a new cycle of housing demand over the next ten to fifteen years.
I think the population growth (from outside our borders and inside) is going to be the real trump card for the housing blues.
Plan on a long flat bottom for three to five years and you will be happy after that...
Just my thoughts :)
If the answer to a complex problem is very simple, it is usually incomplete...
Steve Simon is the lead instructor at the Steve Simon School of Real Estate www.stevesimon.us
Submitted by Vito Boscaino www.ServingColumbus.com on September 9, 2008 - 1:24pm.
The NAR long-ago lost all credibility when it comes to statistical analysis and forecasting. The NAR kind of remind me of the "Masters of the Obvious", by the time they actually concede to recognizing the obvious, they are late again on forecasting the expected. What a joke....
Submitted by Jack McCabe on September 10, 2008 - 4:17am.
It should be no surprise to anyone the NAR is lowering their "estimates" for sales and pricing drops. They've had to lower their Polyanna estimates almost every month for over two years now.
Their numbers are a joke, their analysis and analysts unbelievable snake charmers, and the general publics respect for realtors is almost down to nothing due to the hype, fluff and puff the NAR leaders continue to espouse.
The amazing thing to me is that realtors are not demanding meaningful change at the upper level of the NAR, and a complete change in press release philosophy to offer realistic and accurate information, instead of poorly spun propaganda that insults everyone's intelligence.
The NAR, in my opinion, has become a bad joke amongst industry professionals and a disservice to its members and the general public.
Somebody smart will come along (sooner or later) and build a trade organization for real estate brokers and sales people that they can be proud of, and the NAR will go the way of the dinosaurs it has become.
Here's my prediction; the NAR will continue to make downward adjustments to their sales and pricing monthly propaganda and their rosy BS predictions each month for the next 18 months.
NAR - Get this message - Get real or die!
Submitted by Sam Chapman on September 10, 2008 - 4:53am.
It is disappointing to see that NAR is pretty consistently wrong when they are looking positively at numbers. I hate the doom and gloom media, but I would rather see giants like NAR get things closer to reality than to overhype things only to cave to disappointment later.
http://www.AustinRealEstateGuy.com