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A view of the real estate bottom

Real estate brief

By Inman News, Thursday, February 5, 2009.

Inman News

About 100 of the nation's 381 metro areas have experienced house-price declines of 20 percent or more since the market's peak, with some markets experiencing declines of 50 percent or more, according to data presented today by Moody's Economy.com.

Moody's Economy.com economists and analysts believe that the national declines may conclude this year, though, according to a Reuters report.

The report states that prices may hit bottom in the fourth quarter, with sales hitting that bottom sooner. But Reuters notes that the Moody's outlook "assumes stronger action by U.S. policymakers" and even then a recession "will keep the housing market from fully recovering until the end of this year."

Stockton, Calif., is expected to experience a total peak-to-trough price drop of 67.1 percent, with prices reaching bottom in the fourth quarter, according to the report. The report also forecasts that Punta Gorda, Fla., will experience a total drop of 65.4 percent, hitting bottom in second-quarter 2010.

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Submitted by Mott Marvin Kornicki on February 5, 2009 - 3:36pm.

When the market was riding high and credit was easy- there seemed to be NO limit upwards. Lenders were certain that the high risk loans; SISA, NINA, etc. where sure deals and no one could lose. Are these the same decision makers that are prdicting "The Bottom?"

Mott Marvin Kornicki, Broker
www.WaterwayRealty.com
305.935.3533 Main Line

 
Submitted by Matt Drouin on February 5, 2009 - 5:43pm.

This may be the worst national real estate market that anyone has ever seen.

But consider this: 67.1 percent is the worst drop we've had regarding the Stockton California market. If this is the worst we can expect in future generations, it just proves how real estate maintains its value over time as an asset class relative to other asset classes. Look at Bank of America's share price over the past year. It's dropped over 80%, and you can't even use a stock certificate for seldom anything. I was an IndyMac shareholder. Guess what my position is worth now? ZERO. Real Estate will never go to zero because it has value in use and value in exchange.

At least you can use a house. It's shelter... it's your family's home.

I have a related article to plunging real estate values and foreclosures, feel free to print it out and share it to your clients: http://www.nyhomesgetsold.com/community

Matt Drouin
Associate Broker
Nothnagle Realtors
http://www.nyhomesgetsold.com

 
Submitted by on February 5, 2009 - 6:14pm.

Bill Fooks
TFT realty Marketing Service
Warwick, RI http://www.fooksteam.com
If the stock market went down that much you would jump out the window. If you don't have to sell, your home, you have lost nothing.Most of what you have is borrowed money on the assett.In stock, it is hard money that you lost. Those that bought high, with cheap, easy money, are getting what they should have expected. (Something like musical chairs). Those who don't have to sell still have a hard assett that you can hold on to, see, touch, and live in. Do that with stock!

 
Submitted by Ted Jernigan on February 5, 2009 - 7:05pm.

I think Stockton and Punta Gorda cannot be directly compared. No one is going to choose to retire to Stockton in the next few years.

Ted Jernigan
Ebby Halliday REALTORS
McKinney, Texas 75071
Jernigan@ebby.com
972-489-6173

 
Submitted by on February 9, 2009 - 10:15am.

In every market up or down there is opportunity. Even though Stockton has fallen there is opportunity there. The comment that "no one is going to choose stockton to retire" is false as plenty of people will choose to retire somewhere in CA if they can and if the price is right. With that said almost any area has those who want to retire there and are just looking for the right opportunity.

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