Builder confidence remains near record low

Index shows monthly decline in short-term sales outlook

Inman News

Builder confidence remained steady in March, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)-Wells Fargo Housing Market Index report released Monday.

A rating below 50 signals builders view sales conditions as poor -- the index stood at 9 for March -- it was the fifth straight month the overall index has held steady. The index hit a record low at 8 in January.

The 20-year-old index has been in single-digit territory since November -- it averaged 72 during 2005.

The index gauges current builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes from a set of survey questions. The survey focuses on buyer traffic, current sales conditions, and sales expectations for the next six months.

The index component gauging current sales conditions held at 7 in March, and the component gauging builders' sales expectations for the next six months held at 15. The component that focuses on buyer traffic dropped from 11 in February to 9 in March.

The results of another survey, released by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, found that builders are divided on whether a new $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers (see Inman News article) will directly result in additional sales: 54 percent said they would not receive any new sales as a result, while 46 percent said they expected one to five sales per community in March as a result.

The March survey is based on responses from 218 builder executives from across the country who represent about 1,600 new-home communities in 80 metro areas. ...CONTINUED

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Submitted by Rick Hardman on March 17, 2009 - 12:21pm.

Yep, that sounds about right. I see no indication that things are going to get better anytime soon. I also believe that the tax credit will not help spur home sales, but will merely benefit those who already had planned to buy a home for the 1st time. (not that it is a bad thing, but it just will not accomplish what the government thinks it will)

arkansas real estate

 
Submitted by Robert A. Hulme on March 17, 2009 - 2:12pm.

First Time home buyers are really coming to the table here in Utah. I am really excited about where things are headed.

Robert A. Hulme
Realtor, GRI, e-PRO
Prudential Utah Real Estate
Loan Officer
Mortgage Xpress
www.OremRealEstate.ws
www.ProvoRealEstate.ws
801-885-2586

 
Submitted by Richard Stabile Bergen County Real Estate on March 17, 2009 - 4:25pm.

Builder confidence will pick up late in this cycle. The overbuilding has to be absorded. Currently, new homes cost are above existing stock. When that changes, confidence will change. Also, I think before it is over, we must see some failures and consolidation. The market is picking up. Many will not want to go out on a limb for it. However, it is changeing, nothing stays the same, nothing. It is being flooded with money, and that what a commodity like real estate is all about.