Pending California real estate sales bode well for spring
New CAR index tracks homes under contract
By Inman News, Wednesday, February 23, 2011.Pending home sales were up 13.6 percent in California from December to January, with distressed properties accounting for more than half of pending transactions, according to a new index compiled by the California Association of Realtors.
CAR's pending home sales index surveys more than 70 Realtor associations and multiple listing services, and uses 2008 sales levels as a benchmark. An index reading of 100 is equal to the average level of sales contract activity in 2008.
The index climbed to 93.6 in January, up from 82.4 in December but down 2 percent from a year ago, CAR said, noting that pending sales typically rise after seasonal slowdowns in November and December.
"January's pending sales should be reflected in higher existing sales activity in February and March and serve as a precursor to the spring home buying season," CAR President Beth Peerce said in a statement.
Distressed properties -- short sales and bank-owned (REO) properties -- accounted for 54 percent of pending sales statewide, up from 50 percent in December but down from 56 percent a year ago.
Distressed properties accounted for 70 percent or more of all sales in Kern, Sacramento, Riverside, San Bernardino and Solano counties.
Share of Distressed Sales (selected counties)
| County/Region | |||
| California | |||
| San Diego | |||
| Marin | |||
| Orange | |||
| San Luis Obispo | |||
| Los Angeles | |||
| Mendocino | |||
| Napa | |||
| Sonoma | |||
| Kern | |||
| Sacramento | |||
| Riverside | |||
| San Bernardino | |||
| Solano |
Source: California Association of Realtors
REO properties accounted for 32 percent of pending sales, up from 30 percent in January but down from 37 percent a year ago, CAR said.
Short sales, which accounted for 19 percent of pending sales in January 2010 and 20 percent of sales in December, represented 22 percent of last month's pending sales.
CAR also released a chart illustrating the price stratification between conventional, short sale and REO properties.
Looking at all sales of single-family homes that closed escrow in January, the median price was $278,900 -- down 8.6 percent from a revised $305,020 in December and down 2 percent from a year ago.
But at $265,500, the median price for short sales closing escrow in January was 28 percent less than the $367,150 median price for "conventional" properties. The median price for REO properties, at $198,000, was 46 percent less.
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Submitted by Victor Lund on February 24, 2011 - 9:34am.
I presume that what CAR is really saying is that real stability will not return to the housing market until the jobs market improves. The modern economy has never experienced real estate growth in a high unemployment environment.
If you equate home values with homeowner net worth, the Price differential chart above tells a different story.
Families without cash reserves are loosing their houses (see the red and green lines in the chart above). The upper middle class (blue line above) is doing just fine. Luxury Homes in California are not being listed or sold - Luxury volume is at very low levels.
Victor Lund
Partner
WAV Group
http://waves.wavgroup.com
http://www.wavgroup.com
Submitted by Sean OToole on February 24, 2011 - 1:57pm.
I think it is important not to read the price differential chart, as "discounts" - a mistake I've seen made in other reports. This should be obvious to Realtor's as we all know short sales don't sell for 28% below "market", nor do REO's sells for 46% below. Instead it indicates a difference in the mix of properties being sold in each group.
Unfortunately I agree with Victor that it also is likely an indicator of how negative equity impacts socio-economic groups differently.
Sean O'Toole
Founder / CEO
ForeclosureRadar.com
ForeclosureTruth.com