Mortgages are close to 5.5 percent today for the lowest-fee deals – as low as at any time since March '04. The ultimate driver, the 10-year-T-note, has stayed within a 4.16 percent-4.3 percent range for a month. This stability in long-term rates – if anything tilting to the down side – is contrary to just about every forecast, whether published or talking-head. The yammering has gone like this: the Fed is marching toward 3.5 percent-4 percent or more from today's 2.25 percent; and the dollar is sure to weaken further, which will cause both inflation and a demand for higher yields by foreign investors. All clear, but the actual market has not played by the rules: save one week after Thanksgiving, the 10-year has not traded above 4.35 percent since last July. Why are bonds so far off-script? There is no answer in the pattern of economic activity. GDP baseline is close to 3.5 percent; inflation as measured by CPI reached 3.4 percent last year, but is tailing now, and the...
by Gill South | Today 9:30 A.M.
by Bernice Ross | Aug 14
by Laura Ure | Aug 14
by Teke Wiggin | Today 9:10 A.M.
by Bernice Ross | Aug 7