AgentIndustry News

Housing opinion likely to annoy everybody

Future-Proof: Navigate Threats, Seize Opportunities at ICNY 2018 | Jan 22-26 at the Marriott Marquis, Times Square, New York

Long-term rates are finishing their fourth-straight week in the same place: the 10-year T-note in the 4.6s, mortgages 6.25-6.375 percent. This trading band is too tight to last much longer, and at week end the majority opinion has shifted (again) to favoring a modest drop out of the bottom of the range. The current economic circumstance is as weird and out of historical pattern as the semi-recession 2001-2003. Global integration has made obsolete most of the business-cycle instincts useful since WWII; the business cycle lives, but it's not your Dad's. Today we have the Fed toward the end of an inflation-fighting campaign, credit-sensitive housing and autos in recession, just as in historical pattern, but the anomalies are in charge. Three of them: 1) $65 oil should have caused a bad inflation problem, but did not because global wage competition has intercepted the wage-price spiral; 2) despite a tight Fed, the corporate world is in excellent earnings and credit strength because of glo...