AgentIndustry News

Can we expect a low-rate future?

Future-Proof: Navigate Threats, Seize Opportunities at ICNY 2018 | Jan 22-26 at the Marriott Marquis, Times Square, New York

Four bad weeks in a row, this one the worst by far, yesterday the most abrupt bond-market move in two years. Mortgages are 6.75 percent, up a half-percent since May 14. The 10-year Treasury: 4.6 percent in mid-May, 4.9 percent last week, 4.97 percent Wednesday, 5.13 percent Thursday, 5.24 percent in Europe last night, and semi-stable at 5.16 percent today. Last time this high: summer '06 at the 5.25 percent conclusion of the Fed's two-year rate rise. Long-term rates quickly fell thereafter, all fall and winter looking for a housing or Fed-caused recession. To measure the chances for a reversal of this rate move or a sustained rise ahead we have to look back a long way. As a species we are engineered for getting the badger out of the cave today, not ruminating on wildlife of years past. Today's big-media stories on the cause of this bond-market wreck range from the straight-faced "Surprise Hike By New Zealand Central Bank" (coincidence is not cause) to PIMCO's Bill Gross, ...