Can we expect a low-rate future?

Mortgage market commentary

Four bad weeks in a row, this one the worst by far, yesterday the most abrupt bond-market move in two years. Mortgages are 6.75 percent, up a half-percent since May 14.

The 10-year Treasury: 4.6 percent in mid-May, 4.9 percent last week, 4.97 percent Wednesday, 5.13 percent Thursday, 5.24 percent in Europe last night, and semi-stable at 5.16 percent today.

Last time this high: summer ’06 at the 5.25 percent conclusion of the Fed’s two-year rate rise. Long-term rates quickly fell thereafter, all fall and winter looking for a housing or Fed-caused recession.