Housing cycles are supposed to be characterized by long trend intervals — long periods of ups and downs. Today our markets are behaving much like the stock market — one week up and the next week down. My guess is that depending on the news home buyers ingest during the week, they tend to react much like investors in other asset classes. This makes it more challenging to predict where the market is headed.
As a kid I grew up next to railroad tracks, and one of my joys (to the chagrin of my parents) was hopping onto slow-moving trains.