AgentIndustry News

Risk of ‘second Depression’ fades

Commentary: Recovery on hold for troubled housing markets

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First, the miracle of loaves and fishes: Economic optimism and immense deficits combined to blow up the Treasury market, but mortgage rates have held in the fours. The 10-year T-note had traded deeply in the twos since Thanksgiving, never above 3.02 percent, and yesterday spiked to 3.36 percent. With mortgages in the high fours, the spread to the 10-year is as narrow as ever, half last summer's, held only by the Fed's promise to buy another trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities in the remainder of this year. If the economy really has entered a "V" bottom to recovery, not even the Fed can hold mortgages here. However, that "V" resides in the minds of a small but very loud minority. Ask passersby on a sidewalk, and you'll not find anybody in that group. On the positive side, the sensible center has correctly concluded that the risk of a second Depression has faded, hence the withdrawal of panic bids from Treasurys. The new data do show a moderation i...