AgentMarkets & Economy

Pinpointing an end to the distressed real estate market

Learn the New Luxury Playbook at Luxury Connect | October 18-19 at the Beverly Hills Hotel

Q: When do you estimate the return of the fully "standard sale" market? A: My friend, I went out of the business of gazing into my real estate crystal ball a long, long time ago. Once was, every year I was asked to predict precisely when in the next year the market would recover.Nowadays, the most I'll do is call out several markets a year that I think are showing signs that they'll do better than average -- things like net population growth, net job growth, low unemployment rates and high affordability all generally point to a city that will fare better than others. As well, there are a few markets in which demand is so restricted by tight land-use guidelines and the very minimal availability of land that they tend to fare relatively well throughout a recession, like my own San Francisco Bay Area stomping grounds. Relatively. These days, I won't even have a discussion about when the real estate market will recover without having a long talk about what recovery ac...