A new year begins next week, and it is time for my annual dodge. Peter Drucker, one of the world’s few worthwhile business theorists: "Nobody can predict the future. The idea is to have a good grasp of the present."

This year, no flinching. Why such foolish courage? In more than one econo-political arena we have dithered and fiddled so long that something is going to happen, and all I have to do is guess what. In order from easiest to hardest …

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