Industry NewsMarkets & Economy

Time to take the measure of the recovery

Future-Proof: Navigate Threats, Seize Opportunities at ICNY 2018 | Jan 22-26 at the Marriott Marquis, Times Square, New York

Long-term rates fell this week to the lows of 2013, mortgages stickier than 10-year T-notes. Although long Treasurys made it to 1.85 percent, mortgages are still 3.75 percent or so -- the mortgage market frightened to death that any loan it buys today will live until its 360th payment. Trading everywhere has ceased for Passover, Good Friday, and Easter, but next week brings a flood of brand-new information for March, capped on Friday by employment data. Thus a good time to reflect. I do not recall a moment in which so many economic elements at the same time have been at points of inflection. In the old days (five years ago) nothing much mattered except U.S. data. In global markets the world is more important than the U.S. 1. Rates are down because of Europe. Period. Euro elites are secure looking down their noses: "Cyprus is unique, the euro-zone will be fine, just a little austerity and economic reform ahead." Au contraire... bank funding costs in March everywhere except Germ...