If US economic growth doesn’t pick up, interest rates are poised to come down

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Bond and mortgage yields have frozen. The 10-year Treasury note in the last three months traded in a slushy harbor 2.6-2.8 percent, but you could skate on this week's 2.58-2.63 percent. When a glacier like this breaks up, expect the shattering onset of true up-down volatility and change in trend. No, I don't know which way. Harry Truman growled his wish for a one-armed economist. No more on-the-other-hand! Apologies: Both of mine are still attached. Long-term rates move with inflation, which moves with economic activity. U.S. rates respond to domestic forces, but a globalizing economy applies pressures we're not used to. I am a U.S. skeptic, and I have company. Janet Yellen: "A high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted." She sees faster growth later this year, and inflation rising toward the Fed's 2 percent target. However, her predecessor had the same foresight, as had every Pollyanna on Wall Street, and failed for four straight years. Yellen's vision of r...