AgentMarkets & Economy

Declining Houston home prices an ‘elevated risk,’ says Arch MI

Homes in the metro considered overvalued in relation to incomes
  • Houston's oil and commercial construction sectors of concern to Arch MI.
  • Two sources believe Houston homes are roughly 20 percent overvalued.
  • Five Texas metros where ranked as having a more than 25 percent chance of home price declines in the coming years.

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Houston home prices are on the rise, but are they too high? Homes in the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro are roughly 20 percent overvalued, giving them a one in three (36 percent) chance of seeing price deprecation in the next few years, according to a recent ranking put out by Arch MI. The report dubbed Houston as the only top 50 metro nationally to be at "elevated risk" of home price declines. "It's not gloom and doom," said Ralph DeFranco, senior economist at Arch MI. "Just flagging it (Houston) as having a potential issue." DeFranco pointed to volatility within the oil sector, along with Houston's commercial construction sector, as factors that will affect home prices moving forward. Currently there is a significant volume of office construction ongoing in the metro, which DeFranco doesn't expect to continue once projects underway reach completion. This would suggest employment in the metro's construction industry could fluctuate negatively. Inflated Houst...