The U.S. 10-year T-note is rising in yield again, now 2.35 percent, up a half-percent since election day. Mortgages are rising accordingly, close to 4.125 percent. Did Donald Trump do that?
- Upward movement in both German and Japanese bond helped push rates higher in the U.S.
- The Fed will go to 0.75 percent on December 14, and authentic signs of wage growth mean that the Fed is an even-money bet to hike 0.25 percent every 90 days in 2017.
- We can hope for temporary downward corrections and a low cycle-top if Trump offers strong support for the Federal Reserve and for budget discipline. Without that, this is going to get uglier.