AnalysisIndustry News

What confirmation hearings and other rumblings mean for rates

Confirmation testimony by new appointees was reassuring in several places, not so much in others

Learn the New Luxury Playbook at Luxury Connect | October 18-19 at the Beverly Hills Hotel

We must now keep track of two universes: the actual financial one and the Trump one. These are alternate universes, not parallel (which would imply straight lines), but are in frequent contact. A pair of charts below shows how disparate the two are. The 'Trump Trade' The "Trump Trade" began on the day after the election, a glorious market eruption based on a new government synchronized in every way to produce growth and profit. The fizzle has not been uniform -- instead it's more like a bad day for geyser-watching, spouts fading to spurts and little blurps. Long-term rates topped on December 15, the 10-year T-note touching all-important 2.60 percent, and have wobbled lower since, 2.40 on Friday. If the Trump Universe were all we had to deal with, long-term rates now would quickly fall. But the real universe includes the Fed, and it is going to raise the cost of money steadily no matter what Trump does. The Trump fizzle reached a new low with his press conference this w...