What a wild week meant for bonds (and mortgage rates)

  • If the Fed is on a tightening path, there is a limit to rally in the 10-year T-note, and we’re at it.

Faster. Better. Together.
Inman Connect San Francisco, Jul 16-20, 2018

The U.S. 10-year Treasury last Friday closed at 2.38 percent, and today trades at 2.37 percent. So nothing happened this week. Hah. It is worth time-tracking this week’s events versus markets, an excellent illustration of what markets care about and do not. One of my wife’s Bronx nursing school pals for a time worked in an ER in Miami. One day an elderly lady came in: “My belly hurts.” Does it hurt all the time? “No, it comes and goes.” How often does it change? “What, I get a pain and I should look at a clock?” If you work in bonds, or suffer their consequences to mortgage rates, look at the clock. This week’s entertainment began on Wednesday. In early morning news, Panera Bread entered a $7 billion merger, and the Dow opened up 106 points from the night before. Then North Korea launched an IRBM just as Xi Jinping arrived here, followed by news that Syria had used sarin on civilians. At midday Trump said in a press conference that Syria had cros...