OpinionMarkets & Economy

Mortgage rates are trying to drop below 4% again

The primary rate-mover has been repositioning by the Fed and the European Central Bank -- but that “other stuff” (politics) is in play, too

The world is moving out there, although it doesn’t look like it. First the explainable, hard-evidence stuff. Then I'll get to the other stuff (ahem, politics). The US 10-year T-note in the last year. With the Fed approaching a hold-point, and unknown effects from reverse-QE, the next big move will be based on economic news. First, try to avoid reading or thinking about the stock market. In the aggregate, stock markets constantly re-price to anticipate future global business conditions, and stocks are guaranteed to wander back and forth across the probable future baseline -- which is invisible and cannot be known anyway. For useful information, watch something else. The WSJ headline last Friday: “Short Sellers Give Up As Stocks Run to New Records.” You know how that’s going to turn out. The Dow is down 90 points so far. The US 2-year T-note. The Fed’s cost of money is in a band 1.00%-1.25%, and the 2-year Treasury is hardly worth owning at a 1.35% yield. Markets ...