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A flight to safety into mortgage bonds that fund most home loans is bringing rates down — and homeowners and homebuyers leapt at the opportunity to lock them in last week, according to a weekly survey of lenders by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed requests to refinance surged 37 percent last week when compared to the week before, and were up 83 percent from a year ago.
While purchase loan requests were also up by a seasonally adjusted 9 percent week over week, that represented an increase of only 2 percent from a year ago.
Bond market investors who fund most home loans have been digesting new data showing that inflation is cooling and the economy is slowing. Investors are also taking risky bets on stocks off the table as the Trump administration institutes tariffs that have sparked fears of a trade war with China, Canada and Mexico.
At 6.73 percent, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages during the week ending Feb. 28 was the lowest level since December, MBA Deputy Chief Joel Kan said.
Joel Kan
“Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S.,” Kan said in a statement.
“Those factors resulted in the largest weekly decline in the 30-year fixed rate since November 2024.”
Mortgage rates retreat from 2025 peaks
Rates have continued to slide as the potential for a government shutdown as a March 14 debt ceiling deadline approaches adds to investors’ uncertainty about the economy.
At 6.57 percent Tuesday, rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were down half a percentage point from a 2025 peak of 7.05 percent registered on Jan. 14, according to rate lock data tracked by Optimal Blue.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model estimated Monday that the economy will contract by 2.8 percent during the first quarter.
But economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics on Wednesday dismissed that estimate as misleading, saying the GDPNow model is “misfiring.” A surge in gold imports is likely throwing the model off, and lagging consumption data it tracks will improve in February, they said.
“Growth is slowing, not collapsing,” Pantheon Macroeconomics advised in a note to clients.
Futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch tool on Wednesday were pricing in a 78 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates at least once by June 18, up from 66 percent on Feb. 5.
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