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Rent prices have been steady over the past 13 months, but that calm may not last much longer. According to a new report from Redfin, mounting economic pressures, including tariffs and slowing construction, could soon put upward pressure on rents.
As of March, the median asking rent dipped slightly year over year to $1,610. That’s just a 0.6 percent decline from the previous year and a slight 0.4 percent increase from February. While those very subtle changes have offered some relief to renters, Redfin economists say that the landscape is shifting — and fast.
A major reason for the shift is the 10 percent blanket tariff on imports, which took effect April 5 under President Trump. While additional “reciprocal” tariffs have been paused, at least temporarily, for most trade partners, China was notably left out of that pause, meaning the supply chain for many goods, including building materials, could still take a hit.
Apartment construction is especially vulnerable as many of the materials needed to build housing, like softwood lumber, are imported. As tariffs drive up those costs, developers may pull back. With fewer new units being built, a supply crunch could drive rents higher — especially in markets where demand remains strong.
However, that’s not the only pressure point. According to Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao, economic uncertainty is also playing a role.
“Tariffs could also drive up rents by increasing demand,” Zhao said. “People may opt to rent instead of buy homes because the turmoil around tariffs has fueled widespread economic uncertainty. Tariffs have already caused huge swings in the stock market, and they will lead to higher prices for many goods and services, along with increased unemployment.”
That uncertainty is already showing up in renter behavior. In Northern Virginia, Redfin Premier agent Matt Ferris says one of his clients is even thinking about selling their home and renting for a year out of fear of a layoff. Federal employees in the D.C. area, in particular, have been impacted by widespread cuts tied to Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
At the same time, the cost of homeownership is becoming increasingly out of reach. Redfin reports that the average American now needs to earn over $116,000 annually to afford a median-priced home, nearly double the $64,160 needed to afford a typical apartment.
Some cities are still seeing rents fall, thanks to a backlog of newly built units. In Austin, for example, the median asking rent has dropped 10.7 percent year over year to $1,420. Similar declines were seen in San Diego (-9.7 percent) and in Portland, Oregon, and Minneapolis (-7.8 percent).
Others are trending in the opposite direction. Rents rose the most in Cincinnati (12.1 percent), Providence, Rhode Island (11.4 percent) and Cleveland (10.6 percent). If construction slows and demand rises as expected, more markets could join that list in the coming months.
