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At Inman On Tour Miami, journalist and public radio host Roben Farzad took the stage with a message that struck a rare balance between realism and resilience: Yes, we’re living in uncertain times, but history has shown time and time again that people adapt, markets evolve and somehow, we always find a way forward.
Farzad, who jokingly calls himself a “distressed journalist,” didn’t sugarcoat the moment we’re in. From the Great Recession to the chaos of COVID-19, from surging mortgage rates to the long tail of Trump-era tax policies, he painted a picture of a global economy that’s been rattled repeatedly.
Still, he urged the audience to zoom out and reflect.
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In his Tuesday morning session, “Upside Down and Back Up Again: What’s Next for the Global Economy,” Farzad encouraged the audience to imagine it was 2007. Could anyone have predicted what was coming next? A housing crash, a financial meltdown, and eventually, a once-in-a-century pandemic? Of course not, but the world didn’t end. It rebalanced. It evolved.
“If you go to a Walmart, if you go to a Target, if you go to a Men’s Wearhouse, China is the manufacturer and the exporter of the world,” he said. “You’ve been able to take advantage of that peace dividend.”
Even Walmart’s chief procurement officer, Farzad noted, has been in a public back-and-forth with the White House, trying to hold prices down.
Then, there’s the bond market. Farzad recalled a surreal moment when the 10-year yields dropped below 0.5 percent. “I want you to put yourselves in that mindset, that weightlessness,” he said.
Despite all the instability, he returned to one key point: perspective. During the depths of the 2008-9 collapse, no one wanted to touch real estate in Miami. But in hindsight, that was exactly the time to buy.
Now, here we are again, caught in another moment that feels just as foggy. Farzad admitted he’s worried.
Credit card delinquency rates are rising, and people are struggling to make minimum payments even as job numbers grow.
“There are people not able to make the minimum debt payment over the next three months,” Farzad said. “You should not have that kind of deteriorating credit quality when jobs are being added.”
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The housing market, especially in places such as Miami, is flashing warning signs.
“This has left a lot of homebuyers thinking, maybe now, maybe never,” Farzad explained. “Are we at the fork in the road where inflation is going to worsen and the Fed has to come and finish the job?”
Farzad didn’t hold back on structural concerns either. Without workers, income or affordability, who will live in these places? Who will staff the buildings? Who will drive the Ubers? he asked the audience.
In Midtown Manhattan and Miami’s booming Brickell Avenue, hedge fund managers are buying up entire blocks. Goldman Sachs and others are doubling down on Palm Beach. But Farzad asked the question no one wants to answer: “Who’s going to keep the engine running?”
Even with all the glamour and investment, there’s a cost. “You’re getting tax benefits, but you’re paying more in quality of life, in staffing shortages, in basic services,” he said. “Welcome to Miami.”
That line carried weight for Farzad, who grew up just north of Surfside — the site of one of the most devastating building collapses in recent U.S. history.
To Farzad, it was inconceivable that the disaster could happen so close to where he grew up, but also in a place with zoning laws, building codes and condo boards.
What’s happening now, he said, feels like déjà vu. The skyline looks shiny again, but beneath the surface, cracks remain — figurative and literal. And that’s real estate. The wild ride from boom to bust — and sometimes, back again.
